Bloch,Blumberg, and Laartz (2012) stated that major source of project risk isinaccurate allocation of all resources and weak planning.
Authors claimed thatmost of existing literature had focused mostly on technical aspects of planningand excluding other factors. Moreover, two common perceptions that have hadgreater impact on success of projects were optimism bias as well as strategicmisrepresentation. To overcome two phenomena the new approach of “referenceclass forecasting” was suggested. New method is based on assessing actualprogress made and comparing it with other set of comparable projects. In orderto apply this approaches the following requirements to be met:1. Selection of similar project class, which wereimplemented before. Moreover, project class has to be broad enough to bestatistically important simultaneously specific enough to be applied inparticular project case. 2.
Calculation of probability and its distribution, whichis solely based on good quality data on sufficient amount of projects beingincluded into analysis. Data should be statistically significant in order tomake relevant and good quality conclusions.3. Comparing specific project with reference class ofprojects in order to identify mostly probable outcome of the project. Kraneand Rolsadas (2010) had focused on risks in seven large projects. The authorshave analysed the risks based on categorization of risks into major groups:operational, short-term and long-term. Study was based on the analysis of 1450risk elements, which were taken from the risk registers of seven largeprojects. The analysis results revealed that long-term strategic risks were notso often occurring compared with other risks.
Indeed, strategic risks tend tobe more uncertain in nature. Indeed, data set analysis indicated thatoperational risks were dominating in all seven projects chosen for study. Eventhough strategic risks are not considered to be project’s responsibility,identifying them and managing them lies on organization itself.
All in all, operationalrisks can impose significant impediments for further development of projects.Accordingto Ameh, Soyingbe and Odusami (2010), potential threats impeding process ofdeveloping infrastructure for the platform of ICT have been causing seriousissues in all projects. The study based on questionnaire identified 42 factors,affecting cost overruns in 53 telecommunication projects being analysed. All oftelecommunication projects were undertaken in Nigerian regions. The surveyresults have shown that the most likely cost overruns can be in the case ofconstruction related telecommunication projects.
Furthermore, the surveyresults were organized in ranking style in order to illustrate the mostsignificant factors. According to authors, the following list of risk factorshave been identified and ordered based on level of importance:1. Lack of experience of a partner in specifics oftelecommunication projects2. High price levels of imported goods 3.
Price fluctuations Thesethree risks were identified as major ones that can serious negative influenceand increase the completion costs (Ameh, Soyingbe and Odusami, 2010). All inall, authors concluded that other systematic changes concerning the design ofproject, constant fraudulent actions of involved parties, inefficientmanagement of contracts, and ineffective supply of required labour. Zwikaeland Ahn (2010) studied risk management techniques and methods used in Koreanshipbuilding projects through conducting a survey and expert interviews with252 experts from 11 major Korean shipbuilding companies. As a result, authorshave identified 26 different risks, which have had serious influence on largeengineering and construction projects. According to research results, internalrisks were changes in design, changes in raw material supplies. On the otherhand, external risks included foreign exchange rates. Moreover, the resultsjustified the existence of differences in types of risks for large-scale andmedium-scale projects. While large shipbuilding companies were more focused onfailures in time deadlines and specifications of project, large and mediumshipbuilding companies paid more attention to cost overruns and overscheduling.
