The impacts of climate change are not
going to be the similar for every developing country or even for each region
inside a country. Some developing countries with temperate climates may well
benefit from warming. The Ricardian studies in India revealed that agriculture
would be sensitive to even modest warming (Mendelsohn, 2009). The impact of
climate change on farm level net revenue was assessed by Ricardian approach using
panel data over a twenty year period on 271 districts of India. Change in 2oC
temperature and change in 7 per cent precipitation uniformly across India would
lead to an estimated 9 per cent decline in farm-level net revenue annually
(Kavi Kumar, 2009).

The probability of crop production loss in
India would be 10-40 per cent due to climate change during 2080 to 2100
(Aggarwal, 2008). Climate change is one of the biggest environmental threats
potentially impacting wheat production and nutritional security. Increase in
temperature (maximum and minimum) during the crop growth stage indicates a need
to breed wheat genotypes resilient to climate change without compromising yield
(Sendhil R. et al., 2017).

WWF report in 2010 on impacts of climate
change on growth and yield of rice and wheat in upper Ganga basin stated that
analysis of future climate scenarios in 11 districts of the Upper Ganga River
Basin indicated spatial and temporal variation for changes in temperature and
rainfall. Simulation analysis carried out for the quantification of the climate
change impacts on rice-wheat system and for suggesting low-cost adaptation
strategies in these areas, projects varied impacts on growth and yield of rice
and wheat during Rabi and Kharif seasons in A2 and B2 2080
scenarios of climate. Climate change is projected to increase the temperatures more
in the A2 scenario than in the B2 scenario. The projected increase in
temperature is relatively higher during the Rabi season than in the Kharif
season. Temperatures are projected to increase more in areas which are
currently warmer. An increase in temperature is likely to be relatively less in
the hilly areas of Dehradun, Haridwar and Bijnor. Kharif rainfall is
projected to significantly increase in the north and northeast parts of the
study region whereas Rabi rainfall is projected to increase marginally
in the south and eastern parts of the study area.

Due to the impact of climate change,
there is a reduction in both area and yield of some major crops (paddy,
groundnut and sugarcane) in Tamil Nadu by about 5.2 to 9.5 per cent. It is
anticipated that overall production would decrease in between 9 to 22 per cent
for these crops in 2020 (Palanisami et al., 2009). The areas of Tamil Nadu
which produce rice and other food grains are already suffering with less
production and may have drought because of global warming. This has eventually
affected the availability of food. The flooding of coastal areas as a result of
sea-level rise would lead to a loss of agricultural land. It would also lead to
intrusion of salt water into coastal aquifers which would in turn affect
agricultural production in Tamil Nadu (Jayaseelan, 2012). While examining the
impact of climate change on the yield of major food crops (rice, sorghum and
maize) in Tamil Nadu by bring together a unique 39-year period (1971 to 2009)
panel dataset, Rainfall and temperature had positive and significant effects on
rice and sorghum yields up to a threshold level of rainfall and temperature.
Beyond the threshold level, further increases in rainfall and temperature
resulted in negative impacts on yield. The presence of thresholds in weather
impacts was an important finding and showed that there was an inverted U-shaped
relationship between crop yields and climate variables (Saravanakumar, 2015).


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