The rise of China will be one of the biggest dramas of thetwenty-first century, China’s economic and military growth over the last fewdecades but the country on the world stage with superpowers like the US, todayChina is the second largest economy in the world and continues to grow fastpeacefully, it is expected that China will surpass the US in 2030.
This willgive more power and influence, its active diplomacy is also transforming East-Asiaand Pacific region. but how this drama will play out is open question thatpeople have looked from different perspectives, there are always differenttheories that explain why something happened how it happened and mostimportantly what it says about the future, in this paper I intend to explainthe rise of China looking from the point view of Liberalism, Realism andconstructivism and at the end I will discuss the future US-China relation andinternational order.The main goal of China is to transform itself into globalpower which directly challenges the only superpower the US, many experts arediscussing this topic because the decline of US hegemony is feasible know, andexperts are asking questions like how the US should handle china without confrontation?What future would like under Chinese leadership? And the best answers andexplanations of this topic are offered by the mainstream IR theories. LiberalismLiberalists believe that economic interdependence underglobalization era and China’s economic reforms combined with its participationin international institutions gave way this miracle economic development, theyargue that Chinas economic integration into the global market and strengtheningtrade relations with the west will alsoreduce the possibility of war between them, so if China integrates more intoworld economy it will lead to social change, democracy and liberalism althoughthey economically did politically China is still communist with bad humanrights record liberals hope that economic integration will lead to politicalchange and democracy.They advocate tighteconomic policies to integrate China to the rest of the world so that war becomes unlikely because of fear of itscost and economic repercussions, they believe deepening economic ties with theUS for example will turn into political development which overthrows illiberalsystem of the country liberals argue that democratic China will not be a threatbecause of the democratic peace theory which claims democracies don’t fightwith each other, Although this case is long way they suggest that the US shouldencourage China to take steps into democratic political system.RealismRealists with its different schools have different opinionsover the issue, but overall they believe that since the international system isanarchic and based on self-interest states compete for power and use anyavailable means to survive and accomplish their agenda, this will cause tension between rising powerand its rivals and will be understood as a threat against the existing systembecause powerful China will destabilize the current system, and its gianteconomy and military hegemonic pursuit will give the chance to use force toreach its aims anywhere in the world.since China has ambitions to annex Taiwan and dominate EastAsia these agendas conflicts with American interest, Here realists seepotential conflict between great powers and predict that the US will try tocontain and stop this raising power from becoming too strong, doing so Americanwill group with their allies like Japan and Taiwan which are threatened byChina, if the US does that it will deter China to take any step of using forcein the region. They disagree with liberal democracy and internal change ideas.
theysee these arguments weak solution, their way is aggressive deterrence.On the other hand, China wants to become world’s greatest military power which showsthat Beijing aims to dominate world and reshape the order John Mearsheimer, arealist scholar, suggests that if China continues to expand its militarycapabilities, it will become “an aggressive state determined to achieveregional hegemony” so far realist arguments can be seen practically across theglobe were Chinas used its growing economy to make influence friends and globalpartnership, today China’s popularity and influence are hugely felt in SouthAmerica Asia and Africa. If China continues to grow its domestic economy itwill have more chances to challenge the US some experts point out thecompetition might lead to second bipolar world more competition as a result ofsecurity dilemma and China will probably take expansionist policies as the USdid.ConstructivismThe Constructivist generally believe, international relationsia socially constructed, they reject the position of other theories which aremore feasible and materialistic, they consider other invisible factors veryimportant. Such as, history, culture and human behavior focusing more intoideas and believes that people have in their heads which leads them tointerpret events in different ways, they argue that “a shared identity willdetermine whether the two states view each other as threats.” They claimnational identity plays important role in regional security large populationand long tradition of Confucian morality which supports “harmony andprosperity” help China to achieve successful domestic market andstability. it also brings China’s foreign policy toward the neighboringcountries which is friendly responsibility, kindness, and peace-loving, I thinkWendt’s approach is worth mentioning where he describes China’s relations with East Asia as lockianculture.
they don’t deny there is disagreement like the dispute that China haswith Japan over the island, but they don’t agree on realists view of imaginingthe worst. Although China sees itself as a victim of western domination and hasMaoist tradition which disconnects them from rest of the world they contributeda lot to the world mostly economical side, they also participated regionalactivities such as working with ASEAN regional block this created the sense of “we”and new Chinese identity which will result in new regional structure, thatencourages cooperation.Looking into these three mainstream theories and their insidedifferent schools which offer different explanations and solutions, I think myposition would be more realist and pessimist oriented one, the reasons are allin front of as today. Firstly, Chinas growing investment in Africa thecountries industry and economy is growing rapidly and needs resources whichunder the policy of “go abroad” they are overtaking continentsmarkets, investment and projects. Secondly, arms buildup in Asia China isundertaking massive military buildup which threatens the neighboring countriesalthough they denounce that they don’t have expansionist policies it is amatter of time when they make a move, and recently the US showed it is notwilling to intervene. Thirdly, there are many US allies in the region which cantry to balance against China’s increasing influence although other factors likeliberal economic interdependence and domestic factor are important States arestill most important actors and power still triumphs. Lately, experts also are discussing a lot, about the futureUS-China relations, while they seem to be interested in, how the internationalorder would look like under Chinese leadership? , although there is no correctanswer it is unknown the western scholars are optimistic that China willcontinue to cooperate with the west and continue to use the current system, butmy argument is that when the time comes and China is strong enough it willtransform the rules and norms of international order and its institutions intoone that serves more of its interests.
This will of course increase tensionsand many states will see China reshaping the system as big threat.Finally, after many years the US focused on the war on terrorpentagon recently shifted their policy and called aggressive steps againstRussia and China, this shows that the rise of China is here and challenges thealready declining American led era, both groups may plunge into an open armsrace and further conflicts or may agree on peaceful transition.